ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2026 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2026 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Rory McIlroy favourite for the ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP at 7.25/1. That is an implied 12.1% before the margin comes out, and 11.2% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number this is a moderate favourite rather than a standout, with Tommy Fleetwood next in at 9.8/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 33.8% of the win chance between them, which leaves 66.2% spread across the other 64 priced players. That is a fairly typical shape for a full-field event: a recognisable top of the market, and a long tail where the prices are set with much less care. 36 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 3.2%, or 4.3% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Betfair Exchange at 6.7% (1 @ 1/1), so taking the best price player by player is worth 3.5 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2026 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Rory McIlroy
|
7.25/1 | 12.1% | 11.2% | 3rd |
| 2 |
Tommy Fleetwood
|
9.8/1 | 9.3% | 8.6% | 14th |
| 3 |
Adam Scott
|
18/1 | 5.3% | 4.9% | 9th |
| 4 |
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra
|
18/1 | 5.3% | 4.9% | 22nd |
| 5 |
Jon Rahm
|
21/1 | 4.5% | 4.2% | 1st |
| 6 |
Aaron Rai
|
21/1 | 4.5% | 4.2% | 25th |
| 7 |
Daniel Hillier
|
23/1 | 4.2% | 3.9% | 22nd |
| 8 |
Kristoffer Reitan
|
27/1 | 3.6% | 3.3% | 18th |
| 9 |
Matt Wallace
|
28/1 | 3.4% | 3.2% | 27th |
| 10 |
Casey Jarvis
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 2.6% | 51st |
| 11 |
Patrick Reed
|
38/1 | 2.6% | 2.4% | 43rd |
| 12 |
Jacob Skov Olesen
|
38/1 | 2.6% | 2.4% | 62nd |
| 13 |
Tyrrell Hatton
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2nd |
| 14 |
Victor Perez
|
48/1 | 2.0% | 1.9% | 27th |
| 15 |
Ewen Ferguson
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.8% | 18th |
| 16 |
Jayden Trey Schaper
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.8% | 8th |
| 17 |
Martin Couvra
|
60/1 | 1.6% | 1.5% | 46th |
| 18 |
Adrian Meronk
|
63/1 | 1.6% | 1.4% | 18th |
| 19 |
Antoine Rozner
|
63/1 | 1.6% | 1.4% | 33rd |
| 20 |
Matthew Jordan
|
63/1 | 1.6% | 1.4% | 9th |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2026 finished
Jon Rahm won the ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP, having started the week at 21/1 - an implied 4.5% chance. The favourite, Rory McIlroy, finished 3rd.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Jon Rahm
|
21/1 | 4.5% |
| 2 |
Tyrrell Hatton
|
40/1 | 2.4% |
| 3 |
Rory McIlroy
|
7.25/1 | 12.1% |
| 4 |
Francesco Laporta
|
66/1 | 1.5% |
| 5 |
Bernd Wiesberger
|
66/1 | 1.5% |
| 5 |
David Puig
|
87/1 | 1.1% |
| 5 |
Angel Ayora
|
68/1 | 1.4% |
| 8 |
Jayden Trey Schaper
|
50/1 | 2.0% |
| 9 |
Adam Scott
|
18/1 | 5.3% |
| 9 |
Nathan Kimsey
|
110/1 | 0.9% |
| 9 |
Matthew Jordan
|
63/1 | 1.6% |
| 9 |
Frederic LaCroix
|
110/1 | 0.9% |
| 9 |
Frederik Schott
|
- | - |
Our model's numbers for the ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betfair Exchange | 1 @ 1/1 | 3.6% | 6.7% |
| 2 | PricedUp | 5 @ 1/4 | 41.6% | 23.7% |
| 3 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 43.7% | 25.6% |
| 4 | Skybet | 5 @ 1/4 | 48.8% | 30.1% |
| 5 | Betfair Sportsbook | 5 @ 1/4 | 48.8% | 30.1% |
| 6 | Paddy Power | 5 @ 1/4 | 48.8% | 30.1% |
| 7 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 51.1% | 32.1% |
| 8 | Spreadex | 5 @ 1/4 | 51.3% | 32.3% |
| 9 | Sporting Index | 5 @ 1/4 | 51.3% | 32.3% |
| 10 | Boyle Sports | 5 @ 1/4 | 52.7% | 33.6% |
| 11 | BetVictor | 5 @ 1/4 | 53.6% | 34.3% |
| 12 | Ladbrokes | 7 @ 1/5 | 65.3% | 34.8% |
| 13 | Coral | 7 @ 1/5 | 65.3% | 34.8% |
| 14 | BetGoodwin | 5 @ 1/4 | 58.5% | 38.6% |
| 15 | BetTom | 5 @ 1/4 | 58.5% | 38.6% |
| 16 | BetAhoy | 5 @ 1/4 | 58.5% | 38.6% |
| 17 | Betfred | 1 @ 1/1 | 39.5% | 39.5% |
| 18 | Betway | 5 @ 1/4 | 59.7% | 39.7% |
| 19 | William Hill | 5 @ 1/4 | 61.7% | 41.4% |
| 20 | QuinnBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 60.8% | 42.7% |
| 21 | BetMGM UK | 1 @ 1/1 | 44% | 44% |
| 22 | Star Sports | 6 @ 1/5 | 64% | 45.6% |
| 23 | Unibet | 1 @ 1/1 | 48.9% | 48.9% |
ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2026 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2026?
Rory McIlroy was the outright favourite at 7.25/1, which is an implied chance of 12.1% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 11.2% after. Tommy Fleetwood was next in the market at 9.8/1.
Who won the ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2026?
Jon Rahm won the ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, starting the week at 21/1.
When was the ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2026 played?
The ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP started on Thursday 5 November 2026 and finished on Sunday 8 November 2026. It is a DP World Tour event.
How big was the ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP field?
70 players were in the field, 69 of them priced by the bookmakers. 36 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 3.2%, against 6.7% at Betfair Exchange, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its ABU DHABI ALDAR CHAMPIONSHIP picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. The 1-month trial is free.
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