Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
£39.99/month after 1 month. Cancel any time.
Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
The bookmakers made Rory McIlroy favourite for the India Championship at 9/1. That is an implied 10.0% before the margin comes out, and 8.8% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number this is a moderate favourite rather than a standout, with Tommy Fleetwood next in at 9/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 31.8% of the win chance between them, which leaves 68.2% spread across the other 137 priced players. That is a fairly typical shape for a full-field event: a recognisable top of the market, and a long tail where the prices are set with much less care. 115 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 9.3%. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Betfair Exchange at 14.4% (1 @ 1/1), so taking the best price player by player is worth 5.1 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Rory McIlroy
|
9/1 | 10.0% | 8.8% | 42nd |
| 2 |
Tommy Fleetwood
|
9/1 | 10.0% | 8.8% | 5th |
| 3 |
Shane Lowry
|
16/1 | 5.9% | 5.2% | 15th |
| 4 |
Aaron Rai
|
17.1/1 | 5.5% | 4.9% | 20th |
| 5 |
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra
|
20/1 | 4.8% | 4.2% | 1st |
| 6 |
Robert MacIntyre
|
22/1 | 4.3% | 3.8% | 9th |
| 7 |
Minwoo Lee
|
22/1 | 4.3% | 3.8% | 141st |
| 8 |
Casey Jarvis
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 32nd |
| 9 |
Patrick Reed
|
36/1 | 2.7% | 2.4% | 23rd |
| 10 |
Jacob Skov Olesen
|
38/1 | 2.6% | 2.3% | 20th |
| 11 |
Daniel Hillier
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2nd |
| 12 |
Tom McKibbin
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 2.1% | 9th |
| 13 |
Bernd Wiesberger
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.9% | 34th |
| 14 |
Ryan Fox
|
48/1 | 2.0% | 1.8% | 89th |
| 15 |
Justin Rose
|
53/1 | 1.9% | 1.6% | 42nd |
| 16 |
Oliver Lindell
|
53/1 | 1.9% | 1.6% | 84th |
| 17 |
Ewen Ferguson
|
53/1 | 1.9% | 1.6% | 34th |
| 18 |
Angel Ayora
|
53/1 | 1.9% | 1.6% | 115th |
| 19 |
Martin Couvra
|
60/1 | 1.6% | 1.4% | 42nd |
| 20 |
Jayden Trey Schaper
|
66/1 | 1.5% | 1.3% | 15th |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra won the India Championship, having started the week at 20/1 - an implied 4.8% chance. The favourite, Rory McIlroy, finished 42nd.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra
|
20/1 | 4.8% |
| 2 |
Daniel Hillier
|
40/1 | 2.4% |
| 3 |
Adrian Meronk
|
126/1 | 0.8% |
| 3 |
Angel Hidalgo Portillo
|
110/1 | 0.9% |
| 5 |
Joost Luiten
|
77/1 | 1.3% |
| 5 |
Tommy Fleetwood
|
9/1 | 10.0% |
| 5 |
JC Ritchie
|
175/1 | 0.6% |
| 5 |
Gregorio De Leo
|
175/1 | 0.6% |
| 9 |
Adrian Otaegui
|
100/1 | 1.0% |
| 9 |
Thomas Detry
|
82/1 | 1.2% |
| 9 |
Robert MacIntyre
|
22/1 | 4.3% |
| 9 |
Tom McKibbin
|
40/1 | 2.4% |
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betfair Exchange | 1 @ 1/1 | 12.8% | 14.4% |
| 2 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.4% | 32% |
| 3 | Skybet | 5 @ 1/4 | 53.8% | 35.8% |
| 4 | Betfair Sportsbook | 5 @ 1/4 | 53.8% | 35.8% |
| 5 | Paddy Power | 5 @ 1/4 | 53.8% | 35.8% |
| 6 | Star Sports | 5 @ 1/4 | 55.4% | 37.2% |
| 7 | Boyle Sports | 5 @ 1/4 | 56.1% | 37.8% |
| 8 | Ladbrokes | 7 @ 1/5 | 68.7% | 39.4% |
| 9 | Coral | 7 @ 1/5 | 68.7% | 39.4% |
| 10 | Spreadex | 5 @ 1/4 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| 11 | Sporting Index | 5 @ 1/4 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| 12 | BetVictor | 5 @ 1/4 | 61.3% | 42.4% |
| 13 | William Hill | 5 @ 1/4 | 62.9% | 43.9% |
| 14 | 10Bet | 6 @ 1/5 | 60.5% | 44.4% |
| 15 | Betway | 5 @ 1/4 | 64.3% | 45.1% |
| 16 | BetGoodwin | 5 @ 1/4 | 67.4% | 47.9% |
| 17 | BetTom | 5 @ 1/4 | 67.4% | 47.9% |
| 18 | BetAhoy | 5 @ 1/4 | 67.4% | 47.9% |
| 19 | Unibet | 1 @ 1/1 | 47.9% | 47.9% |
| 20 | QuinnBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 64.4% | 47.9% |
| 21 | BetMGM UK | 1 @ 1/1 | 54% | 54% |
Rory McIlroy was the outright favourite at 9/1, which is an implied chance of 10.0% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 8.8% after. Tommy Fleetwood was next in the market at 9/1.
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra won the India Championship 2026, starting the week at 20/1.
The India Championship started on Thursday 15 October 2026 and finished on Sunday 18 October 2026. It is a DP World Tour event.
146 players were in the field, 142 of them priced by the bookmakers. 115 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 9.3%, against 14.4% at Betfair Exchange, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
GolfForecast publishes its India Championship picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. The 1-month trial is free.
Every Tuesday we publish the shortlist for that week's event, the stake for each bet, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms. Your first month is free.
£39.99/month after 1 month. Cancel any time.
18+. Please gamble responsibly. GolfForecast publishes statistical analysis, not guarantees - past results do not guarantee future returns.